The asteroid continues to be the focus of experts.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has captured the attention of the scientific community due to its categorization as a near-Earth object.
This means that its orbit takes it within the region of Earth’s influence in the solar system, making it an object of interest for space surveillance.
Since its identification, astronomers have analyzed its trajectory and determined that it has an extremely low probability of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
With an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters wide, its impact could cause significant damage in a localized region in the event of a collision.
Observations and planetary defense protocols
NASA has emphasized the importance of this asteroid for planetary defense.
According to the agency, although the risk of impact has increased from 2.3% to 2.6% by the year 2032, this has prompted notification to various government agencies and international organizations.
These include the International Asteroid Warning Network, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.
According to NASA: “As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, the probability of its impact will be better understood.”
In previous cases, the threat of impact from other asteroids has been ruled out after further observations.However, there is also the possibility that the probability of collision will increase over time.
The role of 2028 in predicting impact
One of the key moments in the observation of 2024 YR4 will be in 2028, when the asteroid will approach the Earth again.
David Tovar, planetary geologist and astrobiologist at the National University, explained to Blu Radio that the James Webb Space Telescope will play a fundamental role in this process.
- Thanks to its advanced technology, it will be possible to obtain more precise information about the object’s trajectory and to evaluate with greater certainty the possibility of impact in 2032.
The initial report on the detection of 2024 YR4 was recorded by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on January 27, 2025.
This organization, funded by NASA and operated by the University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy, has telescopes in different parts of the world, including Chile.
Its work is key in the early detection of potentially dangerous space objects.
As new observations are made in the coming years, experts will be able to determine more precisely whether the asteroid poses a real threat to Earth or whether, as has happened in other cases, the danger of impact will be ruled out.
