The 2024 YR4 meteorite has astronomers and astrophysicists from different space agencies around the world on tenterhooks since its discovery on December 27 last year. According to initial reports, it will pass very close to Earth in 2032 and there is a 2.3% chance of collision. In this context, a NASA scientist reported which countries would be impacted by the asteroid.
David Rankin, an engineer on NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, unveiled his theory of the “corridor of death,” a strip that crosses through much of the planet in the middle and which, from his perspective and analysis, is where the comet would fall.
Although the US agency indicated that the risk of collision is 1 in 43, it nevertheless set off alarm bells and pointed a fraction of its best telescopes in the direction of 2024 YR4. It should be remembered that this measure was taken because it occupies level “3” on the Turin Risk Scale.
Rankin’s calculations suggest that the asteroid would fall in:
- The upper end of South America.
- Southern Asia.
- The Arabian Sea.
- North Africa.
- The Pacific Ocean.
Rankin emphasized that the exact place where the asteroid would impact would depend on the Earth’s rotation at the time of its arrival. He also explained that the approximate speed at which it could descend would be 60,000 kilometers per hour.
According to the scientist’s proposal, some of the countries at risk of being targeted by 2024 YR4 would be: India, Venezuela, Pakistan, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Colombia, Sudan and Nigeria.
Beyond this speculation, those responsible for tracking the meteorite stressed that “it is important not to panic, as the impact has not been confirmed at the moment”.
Among the methods being considered by experts, there are three different variables. These will be put into practice if the comet’s direction does not change by the stipulated date of a possible impact on December 22, 2032.
The options include: sending a nuclear bomb, solar lasers or kinetic impactors. The latter would aim to divert the course of 2024 YR4.
The asteroid will make a close approach in December 2028, before its critical approach four years later. During that time, astronomers will analyze its dimensions and the speed at which it travels. Thanks to estimates based on the light it reflects, it is believed to be between 40 and 90 meters wide, although this may vary with subsequent observations.
The impact of the meteorite could damage an area of 2,150 square kilometers. This is equivalent to almost 11 times the size of the city of Buenos Aires. The disaster it would cause would be similar to the Tunguska event, which severely damaged the Siberian forest in 1908.
The next step in clarifying and determining essential characteristics is to observe the comet with the James Webb Space Telescope during the first days of March 2024 YR4. This will be the pivotal moment, as scientists will be able to understand the dimensions and orbit.
NASA emphasized that the choice of that month was deliberate, particularly because conventional telescopes are unable to accurately capture the light emanating from the comet.
They also insisted that in May, the space telescope will once again focus on 2024 YR4, as in April it will be lost from view by the devices installed on Earth. This will help to study how much its position has changed.
