The space agency would have a protocol prepared to move forward in case this asteroid becomes a threat to the world population; the alternatives being considered
The possible collision of comet 2024 YR4 with Earth in the year 2032 set off alarm bells in the scientific community and the general public. With an estimated diameter of between 40 and 100 meters, this space object was detected on December 27, 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. Since then, astronomers have been closely monitoring its trajectory, which indicates an impact probability of 2.3%, a figure that is almost double the initial estimates.
According to preliminary calculations, if 2024 YR4 maintains its current course and collides with the Earth, the impact could occur in a strip that extends from northern South America, crossing the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa. This Countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria would be at risk. However, everything remains to be seen, as its trajectory could vary in the coming years and, above all, in its entry into the atmosphere.
Although an object of this size does not represent a threat of global extinction, its impact could generate shock waves of great magnitude, damage to cities and local climatic effects, depending on whether it falls on land or in the depths of the ocean.
The four points of the NASA plan
The Office of Planetary Defense Coordination at NASA is in charge of monitoring near-Earth objects and designing strategies to mitigate a potential collision. In the event that 2024 YR4 becomes an imminent threat, the protocol contemplates three key actions to be taken:
- Alert governments and international organizations: NASA would first inform the governments of the countries that could be in the impact zone and then the rest of the world. The UN would also be notified to coordinate efforts at a global level.
- Mitigation strategies: if time permits, the possibility of diverting the comet would be evaluated by means of a mission similar to the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which in 2022 succeeded in modifying the orbit of an asteroid by means of the impact of an unmanned spacecraft.
- Evacuation plans and damage reduction: if impact is unavoidable, the countries affected should implement evacuation plans and emergency measures to minimize human and economic losses.
In recent years, NASA has also been developing and refining strategies to deflect potentially dangerous asteroids or comets. In 2022, the space agency carried out the DART (Deflecting Asteroids with Rendezvous Technology)mission, in which a probe impacted the asteroid Dimorphos and managed to alter its orbit. This experiment, which cost $324 million, demonstrated that it is possible to modify the trajectory of a space object with sufficient advancewarning.
If it is confirmed that 2024 YR4 represents a real threat to humanity, a similar mission could be implemented to change its course and avoid a collision with Earth. However, the success of this strategy will depend on how much time there is before impact and the composition of the comet, factors that will determine whether a kinetic impact is sufficient or whether a more advanced alternative would be needed, such as nuclear explosions in space.
