Scientists believe that the risk of this happening is reduced to zero, despite the recently raised alert
The threat of the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the Earth in 2032 is unlikely, despite the increase in the probability percentage.
The latest calculations released by experts suggested that there is a 2% chance that the space rock will crash into the planet, which – on the contrary – exposes that there is a 98% probability that this will not happen. In fact, scientists said that new fluctuations in estimates can be expected in the near future but that they will eventually be expected to decrease to zero.
“No one should be concerned that the probability of impact is increasing. This is the behavior our team expected,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, adding that “to be clear, we expect the probability of impact to drop to zero at some point”.
The coming weeks will be key for experts to obtain accurate data on the asteroid, such as its size, orbit and trajectory. With this data, they will be able to determine more precisely the real risk of its arrival on the planet, “the severity of the impact and how difficult it would be to deflect it,” if necessary, explained Chodas, recalling that NASA has already succeeded in altering the path of an asteroid in 2022, as a test.
According to initial studies, however, if it does end up crashing into the Earth, it is believed that a strip of land reaching Colombia, Venezuela, northern Brazil and the middle of Africa would be at risk.
According to initial studies, however, if it does end up crashing into the Earth, it is believed that a strip of the Earth reaching Colombia, Venezuela, northern Brazil, central Africa, India and Myanmar, including maritime areas, would be at risk.
That is why the experts do not foresee a serious incident either.
“In the event of a collision with Earth, it would not produce a tragedy on a global scale, as happened, for example, some 65 million years ago, when an asteroid about nine or ten kilometers in diameter collided with what is now the Yucatán peninsula and caused the disappearance of more than 90% of plant and animal species,” astronomer Diego Bagú told Infobae.
The supposed impact could occur in a strip of the Earth that goes from Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil, to the middle zone of Africa, India and even Myanmar.
In the worst-case scenario, in which 2024 YR4 is at the smallest predicted end, the European Space Agency has said that its impact could be similar to that of 1908 in Siberia. Then, in Tunguska, an asteroid of about 50 meters entered the atmosphere and, although it did not impact with the Earth’s surface due to the high temperature and pressure, it exploded and its shock wave wiped out a forested area of more than 2,100 hectares.
The asteroid was discovered on December 27 by one of the telescopes of the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) network of the University of Hawaii, in Río Hurtado, Chile.
It is a celestial object with an estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters, classified as a level three hazard on the Torino Scale. This, according to the protocols, means that it must be constantly monitored, although without the need to generate panic among the population.
